DELL · Dell Technologies — AI Server + Project Stargate Infrastructure Play
Research Type: Deep-Dive Study Research Date: May 12, 2026
Disclaimer: This document is an automated fact sheet generated from SEC EDGAR filings and a proprietary catalyst-identification engine. It does not constitute a formal research report. Data has not been manually cross-verified, and external sources have not been individually audited. For educational and informational purposes only.
Current Price: $260.46 (2026-05-08) Market Cap: $178.2B SIC: 3571 ELECTRONIC COMPUTERS
Executive Summary
| Key Question | Answer |
|---|---|
| Valuation | Forward PE 7.5x (vs industry median 25–30x) |
| Earnings Strength | Latest quarter gross margin 20.0%; TTM revenue YoY +14% |
| Price Performance | 6M +88%, 1Y +152%, 3Y +483% |
| Risk (Beta) | 1.88 (vs SPY) / Annualized volatility 57% |
| 90-Day Market Sentiment | +0.40 (n=50; 24 positive / 4 negative) |
1. Company Fundamentals
| Dimension | Data |
|---|---|
| Company | Dell Technologies Inc. |
| SIC Industry | 3571 — ELECTRONIC COMPUTERS |
| Employees | 97,000 |
| Primary Exchange | NYSE (XNYS) |
Dell Technologies is a broad information technology vendor, primarily supplying hardware to enterprises. It focuses on premium and commercial personal computers, as well as enterprise on-premises data center hardware. It holds top-three shares in its core markets of personal computers, peripheral displays, mainstream servers, and external storage. Dell has a robust ecosystem of component and assembly partners.
2. Eight-Quarter Earnings Trend
| Fiscal Quarter | Filed | Revenue (B) | Gross Margin | Net Income (B) | EPS | OCF (B) | FCF (B) | CapEx (B) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-02 (Q2) | 2024-09-10 | +25.03 | +21.2% | +0.85 | +1.17 | +2.38 | +1.10 | +1.28 |
| 2024-11-01 (FY) | 2025-03-25 | +24.37 | +22.0% | +1.18 | +1.64 | - | - | - |
| 2024-11-01 (Q3) | 2024-12-10 | +24.37 | +21.8% | +1.13 | +1.58 | +3.94 | +2.02 | +1.92 |
| 2025-01-31 (FY) | 2025-03-25 | +95.57 | +22.2% | +4.59 | +6.38 | +4.52 | +1.87 | +2.65 |
| 2025-05-02 (Q1) | 2025-06-10 | +23.38 | +21.1% | +0.96 | +1.37 | +2.80 | +2.23 | +0.57 |
| 2025-08-01 (Q2) | 2025-09-08 | +29.78 | +18.3% | +1.16 | +1.70 | +5.34 | +4.10 | +1.24 |
| 2025-10-31 (Q3) | 2025-12-09 | +27.00 | +20.7% | +1.55 | +2.28 | +6.51 | +4.60 | +1.91 |
| 2026-01-30 (FY) | 2026-03-16 | +113.54 | +20.0% | +5.94 | +8.68 | +11.19 | +8.55 | +2.63 |
3. TTM Valuation History (Per Filing Date, Based on Polygon Data)
| Filed | Price | MCap (B) | TTM EPS | Fwd EPS | TTM PE | Fwd PE | PS TTM | EV/OCF | GM% | Rev YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-10 | $106.64 | 78.7 | +3.63 | +2.52 | 29.4 | 42.3 | 0.7 | 5.8 | 23.5% | -47% |
| 2025-03-25 | $98.86 | - | +4.26 | +5.68 | 23.2 | 17.4 | - | - | 23.4% | -37% |
| 2023-12-08 | $68.70 | 50.8 | +4.83 | +5.44 | 14.2 | 12.6 | 0.5 | - | 23.1% | -34% |
| 2024-09-10 | $106.64 | 77.2 | +5.09 | +4.68 | 21.0 | 22.8 | 0.8 | - | 21.2% | -39% |
| 2025-03-25 | $98.86 | - | +5.36 | +6.56 | 18.4 | 15.1 | - | - | 22.0% | -38% |
| 2024-12-10 | $116.79 | 83.7 | +5.62 | +6.32 | 20.8 | 18.5 | 0.8 | - | 21.8% | -36% |
| 2025-03-25 | $98.86 | 71.2 | +10.77 | +25.52 | 9.2 | 3.9 | 0.4 | - | 22.2% | +7% |
| 2025-06-10 | $113.25 | 79.5 | +10.97 | +5.48 | 10.3 | 20.7 | 0.5 | - | 21.1% | +77% |
| 2025-09-08 | $123.00 | 84.4 | +11.03 | +6.80 | 11.2 | 18.1 | 0.5 | 6.3 | 18.3% | +79% |
| 2025-12-09 | $138.22 | 94.0 | +11.73 | +9.12 | 11.8 | 15.2 | 0.5 | 6.0 | 20.7% | +78% |
| 2026-03-16 | $156.54 | 107.1 | +14.03 | +34.72 | 11.2 | 4.5 | 0.6 | 4.9 | 20.0% | +14% |
4. Valuation Percentile (vs Own History)
- Forward PE: Current 4.5 | Historical P25=12.6, P50=17.4, P75=20.7, Max=42.3 | 18th percentile
- PS TTM: Current 0.6 | Historical P25=0.5, P50=0.5, P75=0.7, Max=0.8 | 67th percentile
5. DCF Valuation Framework
Scenario Analysis (Educational Illustration Only)
Assumptions:
- Risk-free rate (10Y Treasury): 4.41%
- Equity risk premium: 5%
- Beta: 1.88
- Discount rate r = risk-free + beta x ERP = 13.81%
- Initial TTM FCF: $19.48B (free_cash_flow field)
| Scenario | Growth Assumption | PV(FCF) | PV(Terminal) | Intrinsic Value | $/Share | vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear (business contraction) | Years 1–5 avg -5% | $80B | $44B | $124B | $182 | -30% |
| Base (sustained 5% growth) | Years 1–5 avg +5% | $127B | $78B | $204B | $299 | +15% |
| Bull (AI tailwind 10–15%) | Years 1–5 avg +10% | $158B | $116B | $274B | $401 | +54% |
Note: DCF is inherently unreliable for cyclical businesses — the discount rate is highly sensitive, and terminal value accounts for 60%+ of total valuation.
This section is for educational purposes only. See full Disclaimer.
6. Peer Comparison (Latest Quarter)
| Ticker | Current Price | MCap (B) | Fwd PE | TTM PE | GM% | Rev YoY | 6M | 1Y | Beta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DELL | $260.46 | 178 | 7.5 | 18.6 | 20% | +14% | +88% | +152% | 1.88 |
| HPE | $31.35 | 43 | 25.3 | - | -% | +14% | +37% | +77% | 1.54 |
| SMCI | $35.37 | 25 | 14.7 | 13.1 | 6% | +45% | -9% | +6% | 2.55 |
| NTAP | $118.00 | 24 | 17.7 | 11.8 | 71% | +4% | +7% | +20% | 1.25 |
| PSTG | $67.80 | 23 | 30.8 | 83.7 | 70% | +15% | -22% | +27% | 1.98 |
7. News Narrative Frequency (Monthly Keyword Mentions)
| Month | Total News | AI Server | GPU | Stargate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-01 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025-07-01 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025-08-01 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 2025-09-01 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025-10-01 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 2025-11-01 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025-12-01 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-01-01 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-02-01 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-03-01 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 2026-04-01 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Trend Analysis (Latest 3 Months vs Prior 3 Months):
- AI server: 3 vs 7 mentions = 0.4x (cooling)
- GPU: Newly appearing in recent months
- Stargate: No mentions in either period
8. Catalysts & Risks
Bull Catalysts (Rules-Based Identification)
- Deep value on a forward basis: Forward PE 7.5x is well below the industry median of 25–30x, offering a wide margin of safety
- Healthy revenue growth: TTM revenue YoY +14%, indicating steady expansion
- Strong momentum: +88% over 6 months — the market has endorsed the narrative and it continues to play out
- Positive market sentiment: 90-day sentiment score of +0.40 (n=50)
- DCF bull case upside: Bull-case intrinsic value is +54% above the current price (at a 13.8% discount rate)
- Attractive FCF yield: TTM FCF $19.5B / MCap $178B = 10.9% (vs 10Y Treasury ~4.4%)
Bear Risks (Rules-Based Identification)
- Elevated volatility: Beta of 1.88 with 57% annualized volatility
- Extended move: +152% over 1 year increases the probability of a meaningful drawdown
- "AI server" narrative cooling: 3 mentions in the latest 3 months vs 7 in the prior 3 months (-57%), suggesting narrative fatigue
9. Comparative Note
DELL vs MU Comparison:
- DELL forward PE = 7.5x
- MU forward PE = 15.5x (for reference)
- DELL trades at a 107% discount to MU on a forward PE basis
- DELL Beta 1.88 vs MU Beta 2.26 — DELL carries lower systematic risk
Data sources: edgar.v_income_pit / polygon.news / polygon.short_interest / polygon.treasury_yields Generated: 2026-05-10 by stock_deep_research.py
This report is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. See full Disclaimer.