KLAC · KLA Corporation — The Toll Booth of Semiconductor Manufacturing
Research Date: May 12, 2026 Current Price: $1,869.19 (2026-05-09 close) Market Cap: ~$244B Research Type: Phase 2 Formal — Based on public IR filings + third-party cross-verification
Data Credibility & Verification Layer
This report has not used any local fact-sheet (KLA is not yet covered in our proprietary fact-sheet system). All financial data is sourced from:
| Data Type | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| KLA IR official press releases (Q1-Q3 FY2026 + FY2025 full year) | L2 | Income statement + segment data + guidance |
| KLA 2026 Investor Day (2026-03-12) | L2 | 2030 target model |
| Yahoo Finance / Investing.com / TIKR / Seeking Alpha | L3 | Valuation + industry analysis |
Limitations:
- No EDGAR 10-K canonical cross-verification (not in our fact-sheet universe)
- No FactSet / Bloomberg consensus estimates
- SEC 10-K MD&A not directly accessed
- FY2025 Q1-Q3 quarterly detail estimated by back-calculation from full-year figures
- Beta / volatility / return data provided by user; not independently calculated
Key Takeaways
Thesis: KLA is the undisputed monopolist in semiconductor process control (inspection + metrology), holding ~58% global market share as of 2025 — roughly 6.5x its nearest competitor. Every advanced wafer must pass through KLA's inspection tools, meaning the company benefits from all leading-edge capacity expansion regardless of whether the customer is TSMC, Samsung, Intel, or a Chinese mature-node fab. Gross margins of ~61%, operating margins of ~42%, and FCF margins of ~30% make KLA one of the highest-quality earners in the entire semiconductor equipment sector.
Coverage Status: Active · Last Updated May 12, 2026 Data Source: SEC EDGAR 10-K/10-Q + KLA IR + Third-party sources
Scenario Analysis (Educational Illustration Only):
- Bear Case Revenue Assumption: Fwd PE 35x — China export restrictions expand + WFE cycle turns down
- Base Case Revenue Assumption: Fwd PE 50x — FY27 EPS ~$42 materializes as guided
- Bull Case Revenue Assumption: Fwd PE 55x — 2030 target model pulled forward + advanced packaging upside
Note: These are arithmetic scenarios derived from publicly disclosed guidance ranges and consensus estimates, not price forecasts or investment recommendations.
Key Risks:
- Valuation stretched (TTM PE ~53x, NTM PE ~43x, vs AMAT/LRCX at 25-30x)
- China exposure still ~30% (export control headwind estimated at $300-350M/year)
- WFE cyclicality (2030 target assumes WFE CAGR of 12%, historical average only ~8%)
- Beta of 1.78 amplifies downside volatility
This section is for educational purposes only. See full Disclaimer.
1. Company Fundamentals
| Dimension | Data | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Company | KLA Corporation | KLA IR |
| Ticker | KLAC (NASDAQ) | — |
| SIC Code | 3827 — OPTICAL INSTRUMENTS AND LENSES | Polygon |
| Employees | ~15,200 | Polygon |
| Fiscal Year | Ends June 30 (FY26 = 2026-06-30) | KLA IR |
| Beta vs SPY | 1.78 (18-month window) | User-provided |
| Market Cap | ~$244B | User-provided |
| Annualized Volatility | ~46% | User-provided |
Business Segments
KLA operates across three business segments:
| Segment | Q3 FY26 Revenue | % of Total | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductor Process Control (SPC) | $3,084M | 90.3% | Wafer inspection + metrology + reticle inspection + data analytics |
| Specialty Semiconductor Process | $164M | 4.8% | Compound semiconductors / MEMS |
| PCB & Component Inspection | $168M | 4.9% | Printed circuit board / advanced packaging inspection |
SPC Sub-Categories (Q3 FY26):
| Sub-Category | Revenue | % of Total | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wafer Inspection | $1,740M | 51% | +16% |
| Patterning | $532M | 16% | — |
| Services | $775M | 23% | +16% |
| Other SPC | ~$37M | ~1% | — |
[Source: KLA Q3 FY26 press release (KLA IR)]
Core Competitive Moat: Why KLA Is a Monopolist
- 58% market share (2025), more than 6.5x the second-place player Applied Materials (~8%)
- Reticle inspection share >80% — EUV reticles cost $300K+ each; inspection is non-negotiable
- Installed base of 57,000+ tools across 4,000+ customer facilities, locking in service revenue ($3B/year, 80%+ on multi-year contracts)
- Process control intensity continues rising: WFE share from 5.3% (2019) to 7.4% (2025), targeting 9% by 2030
- Each node shrink roughly doubles inspection demand: 2nm vs 3nm increases process control intensity by 90-100 basis points of WFE
[Sources: KLA 2026 Investor Day · TIKR Analysis · 24/7 Wall St]
2. Supply Chain Positioning
Upstream (Suppliers)
| Supplier Category | Relationship | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Optical component vendors | High-end optical lenses / lasers | Supply constrained but KLA holds long-term contracts |
| Electron beam sources (e-beam) | Core to high-resolution inspection | Largely developed in-house |
| Compute chips (GPU/FPGA) | Data analytics + AI inference | Not a bottleneck |
| Precision motion platforms | Nanometer-scale positioning | Mature supply chain |
KLA's supply chain risk is extremely low — core optics and algorithms are developed in-house, with no critical single-supplier dependency. This stands in sharp contrast to companies like DELL (100% dependent on NVIDIA GPUs for AI server revenue).
Downstream (Customers)
KLA's customer base spans every major wafer fab globally:
| Customer Type | Key Names | Est. Share | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leading-edge foundry | TSMC, Samsung, Intel | ~45% | Driven by 2nm/3nm capacity expansion |
| Memory | SK Hynix, Micron, Samsung | ~18% | HBM demand explosion |
| China mature-node fabs | SMIC, Hua Hong, CXMT | ~30% | Export controls restrict advanced equipment |
| Advanced packaging | TSMC CoWoS, ASE | Fast-growing | +70% growth in 2025 |
Core Logic: Regardless of who wins the AI chip race (NVIDIA / AMD / in-house silicon), the manufacturing step always requires KLA inspection equipment. KLA is the semiconductor industry's ultimate "picks and shovels" play.
3. Industry Cycle Assessment
WFE (Wafer Fab Equipment) Cycle: **Mid-Upcycle**
| Signal | Data | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 global WFE | ~$110B | All-time high |
| 2026 WFE forecast | ~$130-135B (mid-$130B range) | +18-23% YoY |
| 2030 WFE target | $215B | KLA management estimate |
| Process control intensity | 7.4% (2025) → 9% (2030) | Secular increase |
| Advanced packaging WFE | $11-12B (2026), +70% in 2025 | New incremental market |
| KLA systems revenue growth | FY26 target >20% YoY | Outpacing overall WFE growth |
[Sources: KLA Q1 FY26 earnings call (Motley Fool) · KLA Investor Day 2026 (Quartr)]
Assessment
WFE is in mid-upcycle, not at the peak — the demand driver has shifted from traditional logic/memory capacity build-outs to AI infrastructure (HBM + advanced packaging + 2nm node ramp). This is structural incremental demand, not cyclical restocking.
Bear Signals
- China WFE spending may contract due to export controls (China represents ~30% of global WFE)
- NAND spending remains subdued in 2025 (only 16% of KLA's memory revenue)
- Historically, WFE peak-to-trough drawdowns average ~30%
4. Eight-Quarter Financial Trends
| FQ | Period End | Revenue (B) | GM% (GAAP) | NI (B) | GAAP EPS | OCF (B) | FCF (B) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 FY24 | 2024-06-30 | $2.84 | ~61% | — | — | — | — |
| Q1 FY25 | 2024-09-30 | $2.84 | ~61% | — | — | — | — |
| Q2 FY25 | 2024-12-31 | $3.08 | ~61% | — | $8.20 | — | — |
| Q3 FY25 | 2025-03-31 | $3.06 | ~61% | — | — | — | — |
| Q4 FY25 | 2025-06-30 | $3.18 | ~61% | $1.20 | $9.06 | $1.17 | $1.07 |
| Q1 FY26 | 2025-09-30 | $3.21 | 61.3% | $1.12 | $8.47 | $1.16 | $1.07 |
| Q2 FY26 | 2025-12-31 | $3.30 | 61.4% | $1.15 | $8.68 | $1.37 | $1.26 |
| Q3 FY26 | 2026-03-31 | $3.42 | 61.2% | $1.20 | $9.12 | $0.71 | $0.62 |
Note: Some quarterly figures for FY24-FY25 Q1-Q3 were not individually disclosed in press releases; estimates above are derived by back-calculating from FY25 full-year totals. FY25 full year: Revenue $12.16B, NI $4.06B, GAAP EPS $30.37, OCF $4.08B, FCF $3.75B.
FY2025 Full Year (June Year-End)
| Metric | FY2025 | FY2024 Est. | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $12.16B | ~$10.5B | +16% |
| GAAP NI | $4.06B | — | — |
| GAAP EPS | $30.37 | — | — |
| Non-GAAP EPS | $33.28 | — | — |
| OCF | $4.08B | — | — |
| FCF | $3.75B | — | — |
| CapEx | $335M | — | — |
FY2026 First Nine Months (9M)
| Metric | 9M FY2026 | Calculation |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $9.92B | Q1+Q2+Q3 |
| GAAP NI | $3.47B | Q1+Q2+Q3 |
| GAAP EPS | $26.27 | Q1+Q2+Q3 |
| OCF | $3.24B | Q1+Q2+Q3 |
| FCF | $2.95B | Q1+Q2+Q3 |
TTM (as of 2026-03-31, CY2025 Q3)
| Metric | TTM | Calculation |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $13.10B | Q4 FY25 + Q1-Q3 FY26 |
| GAAP NI | $4.67B | Q4 FY25 + Q1-Q3 FY26 |
| GAAP EPS | $35.33 | Sum of 4 quarters |
| Non-GAAP EPS | $36.44 | $9.38+$8.81+$8.85+$9.40 |
| OCF | $4.40B | KLA IR 12-month LTM |
| FCF | $4.01B | KLA IR 12-month LTM |
[Sources: KLA Q4 FY25 (KLA IR) · KLA Q1 FY26 (KLA IR) · KLA Q2 FY26 (KLA IR) · KLA Q3 FY26 (KLA IR)]
Key Observations
- Steady revenue ramp: $3.18B → $3.21B → $3.30B → $3.42B — four consecutive quarters of sequential growth
- Rock-stable gross margins: Consistently ~61%, among the best in semiconductor equipment (vs DELL at 20%, SMCI at 6%)
- Q3 FY26 OCF anomalously low at $0.71B (vs Q2 at $1.37B) — likely working capital timing effects; requires monitoring
- Non-GAAP EPS trend: $9.38 → $8.81 → $8.85 → $9.40, with Q3 marking a new quarterly high
- FY26 full-year estimate: Q4 guidance midpoint of $3.575B implies FY26 full-year revenue of ~$13.5B (+11% YoY)
Capital Return (FY2025 Full Year + FY2026 In Progress)
| Item | FY2025 Full Year | FY2026 Q1-Q3 | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividends | $905M | ~$753M | KLA IR (Q1 $254 + Q2 $250 + Q3 $249) |
| Buybacks | $2,150M | ~$1,719M | KLA IR (Q1 $545 + Q2 $548 + Q3 $626) |
| Total Capital Return | $3,055M | ~$2,472M | — |
| Capital Return / FCF | 82% | 84% | Consistent with management's >90% target |
FY2026 Q3 Update: The board approved a $7B new buyback authorization and raised the quarterly dividend by 21% to $2.30/share (17th consecutive annual increase).
5. Balance Sheet Highlights
| Period End | Total Assets (B) | Long-Term Debt (B) | Cash + ST Investments (B) | Net Debt (B) | Shareholders' Equity (B) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-30 (FY25 Q4) | $16.07 | $5.88 | $2.08 + MS | — | $4.69 |
| 2025-09-30 (FY26 Q1) | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025-12-31 (FY26 Q2) | $16.72 | $5.89 | $2.45 | — | $5.47 |
| 2026-03-31 (FY26 Q3) | $16.87 | $5.89 | $1.79 + $3.17 MS | $0.93 | $5.83 |
MS = Marketable Securities
Key Takeaways:
- Positive and growing shareholders' equity ($4.69B → $5.83B), in sharp contrast to DELL (negative equity)
- Net debt only ~$0.9B (long-term debt $5.89B minus cash $1.79B minus marketable securities $3.17B) — an extremely healthy capital structure
- Total assets of $16.87B remain stable, with no aggressive balance sheet expansion
- Cash + marketable securities total $4.96B, providing ample liquidity
6. Q4 FY2026 Guidance & 2030 Long-Term Targets
Q4 FY2026 Guidance (Quarter Ending 2026-06-30)
| Metric | Guidance | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3,575M +/- $200M | KLA Q3 FY26 PR |
| GAAP EPS | $9.66 +/- $1.00 | Same |
| Non-GAAP EPS | $9.87 +/- $1.00 | Same |
| GAAP Gross Margin | 60.72% +/- 1.00% | Same |
| Non-GAAP Gross Margin | 61.75% +/- 1.00% | Same |
| SPC Product Mix | 82% Foundry/Logic, 18% Memory | Same |
| Memory Mix | 84% DRAM, 16% NAND | Same |
FY26 Full-Year Estimate (Q1-Q3 actual + Q4 guidance midpoint):
| Metric | FY26E Full Year | vs FY25 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ~$13.50B | $12.16B | +11% |
| Non-GAAP EPS | ~$37.13 | $33.28 | +12% |
| GAAP EPS | ~$35.93 | $30.37 | +18% |
2030 Target Model (Investor Day, 2026-03-12)
| Metric | 2030 Target | Current (FY26E) | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $26B +/- $2.5B | ~$13.5B | ~17% |
| Non-GAAP EPS | $84 | ~$37 | ~23% |
| Gross Margin | ~63.5% | ~61.5% | — |
| Operating Margin | 45-47% | ~42% | — |
| Service Revenue | ~$6B (doubling) | ~$3B | ~19% |
| R&D / Revenue | 11% | ~14% | Leverage improvement |
| SG&A / Revenue | 7% | ~9% | Leverage improvement |
| Capital Return / FCF | >90% | ~84% | More aggressive |
| WFE Market | $215B | ~$110B | ~12% |
| Process Control Intensity | 9% of WFE | 7.4% | — |
[Sources: KLA Investor Day PR (KLA IR) · TIKR Analysis]
Key Assumptions Behind the 2030 Target:
- Semiconductor industry CAGR of 11% (2025-2030) — historical average is ~8%; requires sustained AI-driven demand
- WFE CAGR of ~12% to reach $215B — advanced packaging is the new incremental driver
- Process control intensity rising from 7.4% to 9% (+90-100 bp per node shrink)
- Market share maintained or expanded from 58%
7. Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Positioning | Current Price | MCap (B) | TTM PE | Gross Margin | Operating Margin | Beta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KLAC | Inspection/metrology monopoly | $1,869 | $244 | ~53x | ~61% | ~42% | 1.78 |
| ASML | Lithography monopoly | ~$830 | $582 | ~38x | ~51% | ~35% | 1.3 |
| AMAT | Etch/deposition/inspection | ~$195 | $150 | ~22x | ~47% | ~28% | 1.5 |
| LRCX | Etch/deposition | ~$105 | $132 | ~25x | ~47% | ~30% | 1.4 |
| ONTO | Inspection/metrology (small-cap) | — | ~$10B | ~35x | ~53% | ~28% | 1.6 |
Key Differentials
| Dimension | KLAC | Peers | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 61% | AMAT/LRCX at 47% | Highest in equipment sector (pure inspection = strong software-like economics) |
| Operating Margin | 42% | AMAT/LRCX at 28-30% | Operational efficiency far exceeds peers |
| TTM PE | 53x | AMAT/LRCX at 22-25x | ~2x valuation premium, reflecting monopoly status |
| Market Share | 58% (inspection) | ASML 90% (lithography) | Two monopolists in different sub-sectors |
| ROIC Spread | 27.5% over WACC | — | Sustained value creation |
Competitive Positioning: KLA is the "small-body, high-margin, premium-valued monopolist" of semiconductor equipment. If ASML is the crown of the equipment sector, KLA is the jewel inspector that validates the crown. The valuation premium is supported by 58% market share + 61% gross margins + structurally rising inspection demand with each node shrink.
8. Valuation Framework
8.1 Current Valuation
Diluted shares (Q3 FY26) = 131.75M
Current price = $1,869.19
Current MCap = 131.75M x $1,869 = $246.3B
TTM Revenue = $13.10B
TTM NI = $4.67B
TTM OCF = $4.40B
TTM FCF = $4.01B
Net debt (Q3 FY26) = $5.89B - $1.79B - $3.17B = $0.93B
EV = MCap + Net debt = $246.3B + $0.93B = $247.2B
PS_TTM = $246.3B / $13.10B = 18.8x
PE_TTM = $246.3B / $4.67B = 52.7x (= $1,869 / $35.45 TTM EPS)
EV / OCF = $247.2B / $4.40B = 56.2x
EV / FCF = $247.2B / $4.01B = 61.6x
FCF Yield = $4.01B / $246.3B = 1.63%
8.2 Forward Valuation (FY27E Based on 2030 CAGR Extrapolation)
FY27E Revenue = $13.5B x 1.17 = ~$15.8B (management-implied 17% CAGR)
FY27E Non-GAAP EPS = ~$42 (TIKR mid-case)
FY27E GAAP EPS = ~$40
Forward PE (Non-GAAP) = $1,869 / $42 = 44.5x
Forward PS = $246B / $15.8B = 15.6x
8.3 Cross-Check: Three Valuation Approaches
| Method | Multiple | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| PE_TTM | 52.7x | vs 5-year historical average ~35-40x — above historical range |
| Forward PE | 44.5x | Assumes FY27 EPS of $42 is delivered; still above peers (AMAT 22x / LRCX 25x) |
| FCF Yield | 1.63% | vs 10Y Treasury ~4.4% — significantly inverted (-277 bp) |
| EV / FCF | 61.6x | Very high; reflects long-duration growth pricing |
| PEG | 53 / 18 (TTM growth) = ~2.9x | Above fair value but not extreme (monopoly premium) |
8.4 Valuation Summary
FCF Yield (1.63%) vs 10Y Treasury (4.4%) = -277 bp inversion. The market has already priced in a substantial portion of KLA's 2030 target model.
What $1,869 implies:
- At PE 53x and FY26E EPS of ~$36, the market is pricing in FY27 EPS of $42+
- If the 2030 target model (EPS $84) materializes, that implies a 2026-2030 EPS CAGR of 23% — giving a PEG of ~2.3 at today's price. Not unreasonable for a monopolist, but definitely not cheap
Comparison with ASML:
- ASML TTM PE ~38x vs KLA ~53x → KLA trades at a 39% premium
- However, KLA's 61% gross margin exceeds ASML's 51%, and KLA is growing faster (FY26E +11% vs ASML single-digit)
- The premium has fundamental support, but the magnitude is elevated
9. Bull Catalysts
Catalyst 1: 2nm Node Ramp = Inspection Demand Surge
- Source: SahmCapital / Simply Wall St
- Verification: TSMC's 2nm N2 node began volume production in late 2025, with full ramp through 2026-2027
- Impact: 2nm vs 3nm increases process control intensity by 90-100 bp of WFE, expanding KLA's addressable market by ~$1.5B/year
Catalyst 2: Advanced Packaging Revenue Grew 70% in 2025
- Source: KLA Q2 FY26 earnings call (Motley Fool)
- Verification: CoWoS / HBM packaging inspection is an entirely new incremental market; KLA has already captured the #1 position in advanced packaging
- Impact: Advanced packaging WFE growing from $7B (2024) to $12B (2026), representing $1B+ in incremental KLA revenue
Catalyst 3: Market Share Expansion (54.5% to 58%, 2021-2025)
- Source: KLA Q3 FY26 slides (Investing.com)
- Verification: 360 bp of share gains over 4 years across optical inspection, e-beam, and advanced packaging
- Impact: Each 1 percentage point of share gain adds approximately ~$100M in revenue
Catalyst 4: Service Business at $3B/Year, Growing at 13-15% CAGR
- Source: KLA 2026 Investor Day
- Verification: 57,000+ installed tools, 80%+ on multi-year contracts
- Impact: Service revenue is high-margin and low-cyclicality, providing a valuation floor
Catalyst 5: HBM Inspection Demand Explosion
- Source: KLA Q3 FY26 PR
- Verification: Q3 FY26 growth was driven by leading-edge Foundry Logic and High-Bandwidth Memory
- Impact: HBM production capacity is doubling from 2025-2027; each generation increases stacking layers, directly multiplying inspection passes per die
Catalyst 6: $7B New Buyback Authorization + 21% Dividend Increase
- Source: KLA Investor Day PR
- Verification: Total buyback authorization of ~$11B ($7B new + $3.9B remaining)
- Impact: Annual buybacks of $2-3B provide ~2-3% EPS accretion per year
10. Bear Risks & Counter-Arguments
Risk 1: Stretched Valuation — FCF Yield at Only 1.63%
- Data: TTM PE 53x, FCF Yield 1.63% vs 10Y Treasury at 4.4%
- Trigger: AI narrative cools / WFE cycle peaks → PE compresses to 35-40x = -25% to -33% downside
- Monitor: SOXX index / NVDA Data Center revenue growth
Risk 2: China Exposure ~30% (Export Control Headwind)
- Data: China revenue declined from 41% in FY24 to ~30% in FY25; Jefferies estimates CY2026 headwind at $300-350M
- Trigger: BIS expands restrictions → inspection equipment placed on stricter control lists
- Sources: TipRanks · AInvest
- Mitigating factor: Inspection equipment restrictions are less severe than those on lithography (ASML EUV) or etch/deposition (LRCX/AMAT); KLA's China business is primarily mature-node
Risk 3: WFE Cyclicality
- Data: The 2030 target assumes WFE CAGR of 12% ($110B to $215B); the historical average is only ~8%
- Trigger: Global semiconductor downcycle → WFE declines 30% → KLA revenue drops ~20%
- Monitor: TSMC monthly revenue / Micron quarterly guidance / SEMI equipment shipment data
- Historical reference: During the 2019 WFE downturn (-8%), KLA revenue fell only -6% (relatively resilient)
Risk 4: High Beta (1.78) = Downside Amplifier
- Data: Annualized volatility of 46%. Peak-to-trough drawdown in February 2026 was -22.4% (from $1,939 to ~$1,500)
- Trigger: Broad market decline of -10% could translate to ~-18% for KLAC
- Monitor: VIX + SOXX/SPY relative price
Risk 5: Q3 FY26 OCF of Only $707M (vs $1,368M in Q2)
- Data: Sequential decline of -48%, likely due to accounts receivable / inventory timing effects
- Trigger: If Q4 OCF does not recover, raises cash flow quality concerns
- Monitor: Q4 FY26 OCF (disclosure in late July)
Risk 6: Execution Risk on the 2030 EPS Target of $84
- Data: FY26E EPS of ~$37 to FY30 target of $84 implies a CAGR of 23%, requiring revenue CAGR of 17% plus operating leverage
- Risk: Any WFE downcycle (2027-2028?) would disrupt the CAGR trajectory
- Monitor: Quarterly actual EPS vs the implied 2030 CAGR glide path
11. Quarterly Tracking Sheet (Next 4 Quarters)
| Timing | Event | Key Focus Areas |
|---|---|---|
| Late July 2026 | KLA Q4 FY26 + FY26 full-year results | FY26 full-year revenue >$13.5B? / FY27 guidance / China revenue share |
| October 2026 | KLA Q1 FY27 results | Maintaining >10% YoY growth? / Advanced packaging revenue share |
| January 2027 | KLA Q2 FY27 results | HBM inspection demand sustainability / Service revenue approaching $4B annual run rate? |
| April 2027 | KLA Q3 FY27 results | 2nm volume production impact on inspection revenue |
| Ongoing | TSMC monthly revenue | Leading indicator — TSMC capex = KLA orders |
| Ongoing | BIS export control updates | Whether inspection equipment faces upgraded restrictions |
12. Source Index
Official Sources (L2)
KLA Q3 FY26 press release (2026-04-29) https://ir.kla.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/514/kla-corporation-reports-fiscal-2026-third-quarter-results
KLA Q2 FY26 press release (2026-01-29) https://ir.kla.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/509/kla-corporation-reports-fiscal-2026-second-quarter-results
KLA Q1 FY26 press release (2025-10-29) https://ir.kla.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/505/kla-corporation-reports-fiscal-2026-first-quarter-results
KLA Q4 FY25 + FY25 full year (2025-07-31) https://ir.kla.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/500/kla-corporation-reports-fiscal-2025-fourth-quarter-and-full
KLA 2026 Investor Day (2026-03-12) https://ir.kla.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/512/kla-hosts-investor-day-announces-7-billion-share
Third-Party Sources (L3)
KLA Gaining Share as AI Chip Complexity Drives Up Yield Costs (24/7 Wall St, 2026-05-04) https://247wallst.com/technology-3/2026/05/04/kla-is-gaining-share-as-ai-chip-complexity-drives-up-yield-costs/
TIKR: KLA Q3 2026 Earnings Analysis https://www.tikr.com/blog/kla-corporation-stock-reports-q3-2026-earnings-is-the-pullback-a-buying-opportunity
KLA Q3 FY2026 slides: market share hits 58% (Investing.com) https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/kla-q3-fy2026-slides-market-share-hits-58-ambitious-2030-targets-93CH-4671214
KLA Stock Sinks as China Export Fears Mount (TipRanks) https://www.tipranks.com/news/catalyst/kla-stock-sinks-as-china-export-fears-mount
KLA Strategic Shift Away from China (AInvest) https://www.ainvest.com/news/kla-strategic-shift-china-balancing-geopolitical-risk-growth-2509/
KLA Upgrades Highlight 2nm Inspection Demand (SahmCapital / Simply Wall St) https://www.sahmcapital.com/news/content/kla-upgrades-highlight-2nm-inspection-demand-and-recent-earnings-strength-2026-01-30
KLA's Market Share Growth in Process Control (Dr. Robert Castellano / Substack) https://drrobertcastellano.substack.com/p/klas-market-share-growth-in-process
Why KLA Is My Top Semiconductor Equipment Stock (Dr. Robert Castellano / Substack) https://drrobertcastellano.substack.com/p/why-kla-is-my-top-semiconductor-equipment
KLA Q3 earnings surpass estimates (Yahoo Finance) https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/kla-q3-earnings-surpass-estimates-164300463.html
KLA Investor Day 2026 Summary (Quartr) https://quartr.com/events/kla-corporation-klac-investor-day-2026_3YEy3IDO
Data Limitations
- No local fact-sheet coverage (KLA not yet in our EDGAR system)
- No FactSet / Visible Alpha / Bloomberg consensus estimates
- SEC 10-K MD&A not directly accessed
- FY24-FY25 Q1-Q3 quarterly detail figures are estimates
- Beta 1.78 / Vol 46% / Return data provided by user; not independently verified
Source Tier Classification
| Tier | Definition | Examples in This Report |
|---|---|---|
| L2 | Official primary sources (company IR / press release / 10-K, with URL) | KLA Q1-Q3 FY26 PR, FY25 full year, Investor Day |
| L3 | Third-party sources (URL + publication date, verifiable) | TIKR, Investing.com, 24/7 Wall St, TipRanks |
Key Data Points by Source Tier
| Data Point | Tier | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Q1-Q3 FY26 quarterly financials | L2 | KLA IR press release x3 |
| FY25 full-year financials | L2 | KLA IR Q4 FY25 PR |
| 2030 target model | L2 | KLA 2026 Investor Day PR |
| Q4 FY26 guidance | L2 | KLA Q3 FY26 PR |
| Market share of 58% (2025) | L2+L3 | KLA Q3 slides (Investing.com) |
| China headwind $300-350M | L3 | TIKR (citing Jefferies) |
| WFE market size $110B to $130B | L3 | Motley Fool / Quartr earnings call |
| 2nm inspection demand +90-100 bp | L3 | SahmCapital / Simply Wall St |