RKLB · Rocket Lab — End-to-End Space Infrastructure: The Only Public Orbital Launch Competitor to SpaceX
Research Date: May 12, 2026 Current Price: $105.47 (2026-05-08 close, source: Polygon daily_bars) Research Type: Phase 2 Formal — Fact-based draft with cross-verified public sources Data Health: 0 blocking issues, 2 warnings (Q4 DERIVED rows + income quality_score 150 = high quality)
Data Credibility & Verification Layer
This report is based on RKLB's fact pack, which underwent audit verification:
| Fix Applied | Impact | Verification |
|---|---|---|
| 8 quarterly income records (2024Q1-2025Q4) sourced from Polygon/EDGAR | Includes Q4 DERIVED (estimated rows) | quality_score = 150 (high quality) |
| Cashflow data available for 4 quarters (2025Q1-Q4) | OCF/FCF/financing activities complete | Single-quarter data consistent |
| Balance sheet (Q3 2025 = 2025-09-30 most recent available) | Assets/liabilities/equity | Consistent with 10-Q |
| Q1 2026 earnings (released 2026-05-07) from online research | Latest quarterly data | Multi-source cross-verified (CNBC/GlobeNewsWire/IR website) |
Remaining Limitations:
- Q1 2026 earnings data sourced from online research (L2/L3), not yet incorporated into the local fact pack
- No FactSet/Bloomberg consensus estimates (no subscription)
- SEC 10-Q/10-K MD&A original text not directly accessed
- Segment data (Launch Services / Space Systems) comes from company IR press releases, not in fact-pack three-statement filings
Key Takeaways
Thesis: RKLB is the only publicly traded commercial space company with mature orbital launch capability outside of SpaceX, transitioning from a "small rocket launcher" into an "end-to-end space infrastructure platform." Space Systems already contributes 67% of revenue, and the $1.3B SDA defense satellite contract + $190M HASTE hypersonic contract mark the company's strategic upgrade from commercial clients to national security customers. Neutron medium-lift rocket's Q4 2026 maiden flight is the single largest catalyst. However, PS 70x+, TTM still losing $198M, and FCF deeply negative mean the current valuation is extremely forward-looking.
Coverage Status: Active · Last Updated May 12, 2026 Data Source: SEC EDGAR 10-K/10-Q + Company IR
Scenario Analysis (Educational Illustration Only):
- Bear Case: PS 30x — Neutron delayed + dilutive financing, reversion to mid-2025 price levels
- Base Case: PS 55x — Q4 Neutron maiden flight successful + 2027 EBITDA breakeven expectation maintained
- Bull Case: PS 75x — Neutron commercial success + defense contracts continue accelerating + SpaceX IPO valuation anchoring effect
Note: These are arithmetic scenarios derived from publicly disclosed guidance ranges and consensus estimates, not price forecasts or investment recommendations.
Key Risks:
- Deep losses + significantly negative FCF (TTM NI -$198M, FCF -$322M, sustained by equity financing)
- Extreme valuation (PS ~70x, more expensive than PLTR; any execution misstep could trigger a sharp selloff)
- Neutron maiden flight binary risk (failure or delay would severely damage share price and investor confidence)
- Beta 2.50 + annualized volatility 91% (extremely high-volatility name)
This section is for educational purposes only. See full Disclaimer.
1. Company Fundamentals (Fact Pack + Official Sources)
| Dimension | Data | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Rocket Lab USA, Inc. | Polygon ticker_details |
| SIC Code | 3760 — GUIDED MISSILES & SPACE VEHICLES | Polygon ticker_details |
| Employees | 2,600 | Polygon ticker_details |
| Primary Exchange | NASDAQ (XNAS) | Polygon ticker_details |
| Headquarters | Long Beach, California (operations) / New Zealand (incorporation) | Public information |
| CEO | Peter Beck (Founder) | Public information |
| IPO | August 2021 (SPAC merger) | Public information |
| Beta vs SPY | 2.50 (18-month window) | Calculated (fact pack) |
| Annualized Volatility | 91% | Calculated |
| Current 10Y Treasury | 4.41% (2026-05-07) | Polygon treasury_yields |
Business Segments
Rocket Lab operates two major business segments: Launch Services and Space Systems.
Launch Services — 33% of Revenue
| Product | Description | Key Data |
|---|---|---|
| Electron | Small launch vehicle, 300kg to LEO | 21 launches in 2025, 100% mission success rate |
| HASTE | Hypersonic suborbital test vehicle (Electron variant) | $190M DoD contract + $30M Anduril contract |
| Neutron (in development) | Medium-lift reusable rocket, 13,000kg to LEO | Target Q4 2026 maiden flight; 5 launch contracts signed |
[Sources: Rocket Lab IR Q1 2026 · Spaceflight Now]
Electron Launch History:
- 2023: 10 launches
- 2024: 16 launches
- 2025: 21 launches (annual record, 100% mission success rate)
- 2026 Q1: Multiple launches completed, including South Korean Earth observation satellites
[Source: GlobeNewsWire 2025 Launch Record]
Space Systems — 67% of Revenue
| Product/Service | Description | Key Contracts |
|---|---|---|
| Satellite Manufacturing | SDA Tracking/Transport Layer satellites | $816M Tranche 3 + $515M Tranche 2 = $1.3B total SDA contracts |
| Space Components | Solar cells (SolAero), reaction wheels (Sinclair), separation systems (PSC) | Vertically integrated, supplying 1,900+ on-orbit satellites |
| Optical Communications Terminals | Mynaric laser optical comms (acquisition completed April 2026) | First European operational footprint (Munich) |
| Space Robotics | Motiv Space Systems (acquisition pending) | Mars-proven technology, NASA/JPL customer base |
| Payloads/Sensors | Geost (acquired August 2025) | National security payloads |
[Sources: Rocket Lab SDA $816M · Mynaric Acquisition · Motiv Acquisition]
2025 Full-Year Revenue Breakdown:
| Segment | 2025 Full Year | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Space Systems | $402.8M | 66.9% | +30% |
| Launch Services | $199.0M | 33.1% | +55% |
| Total | $601.8M | 100% | +38% |
[Source: Rocket Lab Q4 2025 Earnings (Yahoo)]
Q1 2026 Revenue Breakdown (Latest Quarter):
| Segment | Q1 2026 | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Space Systems | $136.7M | 68.2% | +57.2% |
| Launch Services | $63.7M | 31.8% | +78.9% |
| Total | $200.3M | 100% | +63.5% |
Q2 2026 Guidance: Revenue $225-240M (midpoint $232.5M, +16% QoQ)
[Source: Rocket Lab Q1 2026 IR]
Vertical Integration Acquisition Timeline:
| Date | Target | Capability | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-04 | Sinclair Interplanetary | Reaction wheels / star trackers | ~$18M |
| 2021-10 | Advanced Solutions (ASI) | Flight software / GNC | — |
| 2021-12 | Planetary Systems Corp (PSC) | Separation systems | ~$42M |
| 2022-01 | SolAero Holdings | Solar cells | $80M |
| 2025-08 | Geost | National security payloads/sensors | — |
| 2026-04 | Mynaric AG | Laser optical communications | $155M |
| 2026-Q2 (pending) | Motiv Space Systems | Space robotics/mechanisms | — |
[Sources: CNBC Q1 2026 Earnings · HBR Peter Beck Interview]
2. Supply Chain & Industry Position (Sourced)
Upstream
| Upstream | Relationship | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Proprietary Archimedes Engine | Neutron main engine (LOX/methane), tested at NASA Stennis | Fully self-controlled, no external dependency |
| Proprietary Rutherford Engine | Electron main engine (electric pump cycle), 3D-printed | Fully self-controlled |
| Carbon Fiber Composites | Electron/Neutron airframe structures | Diversified supply chain |
| SolAero (wholly owned) | Solar panels | Vertical integration complete |
| Semiconductor/Electronics | Satellite avionics / on-board computing | Standard industry supply |
Core Advantage: Unlike DELL (100% dependent on NVIDIA), Rocket Lab's engines, airframes, and satellite components are all proprietary or owned — supply chain autonomy is exceptionally high.
Downstream (4 Customer Categories)
| Customer Type | Representative | Backlog Share |
|---|---|---|
| National Security/Defense | SDA, DoD, MDA, Anduril | 49% (Q1 2026, vs 35% in Q4 2025) |
| Civil Space | NASA, ESA, JAXA | ~15% |
| Commercial Satellite Operators | iQPS, Synspective, BlackSky | ~20% |
| Classified Customers | Neutron's largest contract customer (undisclosed) | ~16% |
Q1 2026 saw 31 new Electron/HASTE contracts signed + 5 dedicated Neutron launch contracts — single-quarter bookings exceeded all of 2025.
[Sources: Rocket Lab Q1 2026 IR · Yahoo Finance]
3. Sector Cycle Assessment
Commercial Space Is in the **Early Explosion Phase** (Dawn of a Golden Age)
| Signal | Data | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| RKLB backlog | $2.2B (Q1 2026), +20% QoQ, +108% YoY | Demand accelerating |
| Defense share jump | 35% to 49% (one quarter) | National security customer onboarding |
| SpaceX IPO expectations | $700B-$2T valuation expected | Sector valuation anchoring effect |
| SDA PWSA budget | $3.5B Tranche 3 (split among 4 companies) | Multi-year defense procurement cycle |
| Global satellite launch demand | 30%+ annual growth (LEO constellation driven) | Structural growth |
| FCC satellite broadband rules | April 2026 spectrum rule relaxation | Policy tailwind |
Core Assessment: Backlog ($2.2B) equals approximately 2.7 years of current revenue, providing extremely high revenue visibility. The defense customer jump from 35% to 49% signals Rocket Lab's upgrade from "commercial space startup" to "national security supplier" — a qualitative leap in customer quality.
[Sources: SpaceX IPO Valuation (24/7 Wall St) · FCC Satellite Spectrum (StockTwits)]
Counter-Signals (Risks to Monitor)
- SpaceX dominates the market; Starship success would further compress the medium-lift rocket market
- Neutron has not yet flown — all medium-lift revenue is projected, not realized
- RKLB PS 70x vs aerospace industry median PS 3.78x = 18.6x premium
- The sector experienced a broad pullback in early 2026 (RKLB/LUNR/ASTS declined in tandem before rebounding)
4. Eight-Quarter Earnings Trends (Fact Pack + Online Supplement)
| Q | Period End | Rev(M) | GM% | OI(M) | NI(M) | EPS | OCF(M) | FCF(M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2024 | 2024-03-31 | $92.8 | 26.1% | -$43.1 | -$44.3 | -$0.09 | — | — |
| Q2 2024 | 2024-06-30 | $106.3 | 25.6% | -$43.3 | -$41.6 | -$0.08 | — | — |
| Q3 2024 | 2024-09-30 | $104.8 | 26.7% | -$51.9 | -$51.9 | -$0.10 | — | — |
| Q4 2024 | 2024-12-31 | $132.4 | 27.8% | -$51.5 | -$52.3 | — | — | — |
| Q1 2025 | 2025-03-31 | $122.6 | 28.8% | -$59.2 | -$60.6 | -$0.12 | -$54 | -$83 |
| Q2 2025 | 2025-06-30 | $144.5 | 32.1% | -$59.6 | -$66.4 | -$0.13 | -$23 | -$55 |
| Q3 2025 | 2025-09-30 | $155.1 | 37.0% | -$59.0 | -$18.3 | -$0.03 | -$24 | -$69 |
| Q4 2025 | 2025-12-31 | $179.7 | 38.0% | -$51.0 | -$52.9 | — | -$65 | -$114 |
| Q1 2026 | 2026-03-31 | $200.3 | 38.2% | — | -$45.0 | -$0.07 | — | -$77 |
Note: Q4 2024 / Q4 2025 are DERIVED (estimated) rows. Q1 2026 data sourced from online research (L2 sources). 2024 cashflow data not available.
Key Observations
- Revenue continues accelerating: $92.8M to $200.3M (8 quarters, +116%); Q1 2026 YoY +63.5% hit a new high
- Gross margin structurally improving: 26.1% to 38.2% (+12pp), GAAP 43% non-GAAP. This is the most positive fundamental signal — reflecting rising share of higher-margin Space Systems + Electron launch scale economies
- Operating income still negative but improving: From -$51.9M to -$51.0M (Q4 2025); operating loss ratio narrowed from -46% to -28%
- Net income quarterly volatility is high: Q3 2025 NI only -$18.3M (includes non-recurring items), Q4 expanded back to -$52.9M
- FCF remains negative but improving: Q4 2025 -$114M to Q1 2026 -$77M (-32% improvement)
- EBITDA approaching breakeven: Q1 2026 Adj. EBITDA loss only -$11.8M (vs -$30M in the year-ago quarter)
Stock-Based Compensation / Financing (2025 Full Year)
| Item | 2025 Full Year | Source |
|---|---|---|
| SBC | Estimated ~$80-100M | ~15% of revenue, typical for growth-stage companies |
| Q2 2025 equity offering | +$406M | Cashflow financing activities |
| $1B ATM program | Completed | Executed in tranches 2024-2025 |
| Total dilution | 505M to 573M shares (+13.3%) | Within 2025 |
Q1 2026 Share Count: ~583M basic shares, ~629M diluted (including 46M convertible preferred shares).
[Sources: Fact pack income_quarterly_canonical.csv + cashflow_quarterly_canonical.csv + Rocket Lab Q1 2026 IR]
5. Balance Sheet Key Observations
| Period End | Total Assets(B) | Total Debt(M) | Cash & Short-Term Inv(B) | Stockholders' Equity(B) | Goodwill(M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 (Q3 2025) | $2.22 | $68 | $0.98 | $1.28 | $218 |
| 2026-03-31 (Q1 2026)* | ~$2.5+ | ~$200+ | $1.48 | ~$1.3+ | ~$370+ |
*Q1 2026 data based on online research; full 10-Q not yet filed
Key Takeaways:
- Ample cash reserves: $1.48B cash + total liquidity > $2B. At Q1 2026 FCF burn rate of -$77M/quarter, runway extends ~19 quarters (nearly 5 years). No near-term financing pressure.
- Very low leverage: Q3 2025 total debt only $68M (including ~$200M convertible notes with capped call). Net cash position.
- Goodwill expansion: From $71M to $218M (Q3 2025), reflecting the Geost acquisition. Expected to increase further to $370M+ after Mynaric + Motiv closings.
- Positive stockholders' equity: Unlike DELL (-$2.6B negative equity), RKLB equity is a positive $1.28B — healthy capital structure.
- Convertible notes: Issued in 2024, maximum aggregate payment $201.9M, maturing 2029. Includes capped call to limit dilution.
6. Data Quality Summary
| Dimension | Data | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Income quality_score | 150 (high quality) | quality_flags |
| Cashflow missing fields | common_stock_repurchased / dividends_paid | Reasonable — company does not repurchase shares or pay dividends |
| Q4 DERIVED | 2 instances (Q4 2024 + Q4 2025) | Annual minus 3 quarters estimation |
| Blocking issues | 0 | — |
| Warnings | 2 | Q4 estimated rows + partial cashflow gaps |
7. Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Description | Current Price | MCap(B) | 1Y Return | Rev TTM(M) | PS | Profitability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RKLB | Launch + Space Systems (only commercial orbital launch) | $105 | $61B | +357% | $602 | ~70x | Loss-making |
| LUNR | Lunar landers / NASA contracts | $29 | $6.3B | ~+200% | ~$500M | ~13x | Loss-making |
| ASTS | Space-based cellular communications | $75 | $25B | +274% | ~$71M | ~352x | Deep losses |
| SPCE | Suborbital space tourism (near shutdown) | — | — | — | Minimal | — | Suspended ops |
| ASTR | Small rockets (delisted) | — | — | — | — | — | Delisted 2024 |
Key Differentiators
| Dimension | RKLB | Peers | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue scale | $602M TTM | LUNR ~$500M / ASTS $71M | RKLB is the highest-revenue pure-play space company publicly listed |
| PS valuation | 70x | LUNR 13x / ASTS 352x | RKLB sits between "expensive with revenue" and "astronomically priced without revenue" |
| Launch capability | Only mature orbital launch | LUNR none / ASTS none | Core moat — requires regulatory licenses + launch sites + 10 years of accumulated experience |
| Defense contracts | $1.3B SDA + $220M HASTE | LUNR primarily NASA | RKLB has deepest defense penetration |
| Vertical integration | Launch + satellites + components + optical comms | Single-point capabilities | RKLB is the only "full-stack" space company (besides SpaceX) |
| Profitability | Loss-making but improving | All loss-making | Sector-wide characteristic; RKLB is closest to EBITDA breakeven |
Positioning: RKLB functions as the "AWS of space" — from launch (EC2) to satellite manufacturing (custom silicon) to components (marketplace), pursuing end-to-end vertical integration. LUNR is a pure government contractor, ASTS is a satellite comms bet, and SPCE/ASTR have exited the field. RKLB's only true comparable is SpaceX.
[Sources: Morgan Stanley Bullish on Space Stocks · Investorplace ASTR Delisting]
8. Valuation Framework
8.1 Current Valuation (2026-05-08 Close: $105.47)
Diluted shares (Q1 2026) = ~629M
Current market cap = 629M x $105.47 = ~$66.3B
TTM Revenue (2025 full year) = $601.8M
Q1 2026 annualized revenue = $200.3M x 4 = $801M (forward)
Management Q2 guidance midpoint $232.5M x 4 = $930M (forward)
Cash = $1.48B
Net cash = $1.48B - $68M debt - $200M convertible = ~$1.2B
EV = $66.3B - $1.2B net cash = ~$65.1B
PS_TTM = $66.3B / $601.8M = 110x (using TTM)
PS_NTM = $66.3B / ~$930M (forward annualized) = ~71x
EV/Revenue_TTM = $65.1B / $601.8M = 108x
FCF Yield = -$322M / $66.3B = -0.49% (negative)
P/B = $66.3B / $1.28B equity = ~52x
8.2 Valuation Conclusions
This is a pure narrative-driven, aspirational-valuation name.
| Dimension | RKLB | Reference | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| PS_TTM | 110x | Aerospace industry median 3.78x | 29x industry premium |
| PS_NTM (forward) | ~71x | PLTR 30x / SNOW 18x | More expensive than the priciest SaaS names |
| FCF Yield | Negative | 10Y Treasury 4.41% | No margin of safety, pure beta play |
| P/B | 52x | Industry 3-5x | Extreme |
The only path to rationalizing this valuation:
- Neutron successful maiden flight (Q4 2026) — opens the $50-55M/launch medium-lift market
- 2027-2028 EBITDA breakeven — valuation framework shifts to EV/EBITDA
- SpaceX IPO anchoring effect — SpaceX at $700B-$2T would re-rate the entire sector
- Annualized revenue $1B+ (achievable by year-end 2026) — PS compresses to 60x
If any of the above falls short of expectations, PS 70x has zero fundamental support.
8.3 Scenario Analysis (Educational Illustration Only)
| Scenario | 2027E Revenue | PS Multiple | Market Cap | Implied Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $800M | 30x | $24B | ~$38 |
| Base | $1.2B | 55x | $66B | ~$105 (current) |
| Bull | $1.5B | 75x | $112B | ~$178 |
Note: These are arithmetic scenarios derived from publicly disclosed guidance ranges and consensus estimates, not price forecasts or investment recommendations. The bear case assumes Neutron delays to 2027 H2 + market sentiment cooling (PS compressing to 30x), consistent with Rocket Lab's 2025 pullback trough valuation. The bull case assumes Neutron commercial success + SpaceX IPO re-rates the sector.
This section is for educational purposes only. See full Disclaimer.
9. Bull Case Catalysts
Catalyst 1: Neutron Q4 2026 Maiden Flight — The Single Largest Binary Event
- Source: Spaceflight Now 2026-05-07 · Stocktwits Peter Beck
- Verification: Archimedes engine undergoing 20/7 around-the-clock hot-fire testing at NASA Stennis; Launch Complex 3 operational; 5 commercial launch contracts signed
- Impact: Successful maiden flight opens the $50-55M/launch medium-lift market, expanding TAM from $300M to $10B+. Failure could trigger a single-day decline of 30%+
Catalyst 2: $2.2B Record Backlog (YoY +108%)
- Source: Rocket Lab Q1 2026 IR
- Verification: Defense share rose from 35% to 49%, indicating quality improvement
- Impact: Approximately 2.7 years of current revenue visibility, reducing top-line uncertainty
Catalyst 3: SDA $1.3B Defense Satellite Contracts — Entering the National Security Supplier Tier
- Source: Rocket Lab $816M SDA · Spaceflight Now SDA
- Verification: Competed and won alongside L3Harris, Lockheed Martin, and Northrop Grumman
- Impact: Validates Rocket Lab's position as a national-security-grade satellite manufacturer; high probability of follow-on contracts
Catalyst 4: HASTE Hypersonic Testing — New Defense Growth Vector
- Source: Daily Galaxy $190M HASTE · Anduril $30M
- Verification: $190M DoD contract (20 flights) + $30M Anduril contract
- Impact: Extends Electron from "satellite launch" into "hypersonic weapons testing," expanding TAM
Catalyst 5: SpaceX IPO Anchoring Effect
- Source: 24/7 Wall St SpaceX IPO
- Verification: SpaceX expected $700B-$2T valuation
- Impact: SpaceX IPO would channel passive fund flows into the space sector; RKLB as the "SpaceX proxy" benefits directly
Catalyst 6: Sustained Gross Margin Improvement Trajectory
- Source: Rocket Lab Q1 2026 IR
- Verification: GAAP GM 26% to 38% (+12pp over 8 quarters), Non-GAAP 43%
- Impact: Prerequisites for EBITDA breakeven are materializing; Adj. EBITDA loss improved from -$30M to -$11.8M
10. Bear Case Risks & Counter-Evidence
Risk 1: Deep Losses + Significantly Negative FCF (**Core Risk**)
- Data: TTM NI -$198M, FCF -$322M. Q1 2026 still lost -$45M
- Trigger: If Neutron development costs overrun + acquisition integration falters, FCF burn rate could accelerate
- Monitor: Quarterly FCF and cash balance changes
- Source: Fact pack + TradingKey Risk Analysis
Risk 2: Extreme Valuation — PS 70-110x Offers No Margin of Safety
- Data: PS_TTM 110x, PS_NTM ~71x, aerospace industry median 3.78x
- Trigger: Any quarterly revenue miss / guidance reduction triggers violent multiple compression
- Monitor: Quarterly revenue beat/miss magnitude
- Source: GuruFocus PS Ratio
Risk 3: Neutron Maiden Flight Delay/Failure (**Binary Risk**)
- Data: Already delayed from 2025 to Q4 2026; Archimedes engine experienced an "unintentional burst test"
- Trigger: Further delay to 2027 or maiden flight explosion
- Monitor: Archimedes hot-fire test progress, LC-3 integration testing
- Source: Spaceflight Now Delay Report · NASASpaceFlight
Risk 4: Persistent Dilution — Share Count Nearly Doubled in 3 Years
- Data: ~350M shares in 2023 to 629M in Q1 2026 (+80%); $1B ATM completed
- Trigger: Neutron requires additional funding — another secondary offering
- Monitor: Quarterly diluted share count changes + new ATM/offering announcements
- Source: FinanceCharts Share Data
Risk 5: SpaceX Competitive Dominance
- Data: SpaceX Starship success would compress the medium-lift market (Neutron 13t vs Starship 100-150t)
- Trigger: Starship enters commercial operations + significant price reductions
- Monitor: SpaceX Starship commercialization progress + Falcon 9 pricing changes
- Source: CoinCentral SpaceX vs RKLB
Risk 6: Acquisition Integration Risk — Goodwill Inflation
- Data: Goodwill from $71M to $218M (Geost); Mynaric $155M + Motiv pending — projected $370M+
- Trigger: Acquisition targets fail to integrate / impairment charges
- Monitor: Goodwill / Total Assets ratio + acquired entities' revenue contribution
- Source: Fact pack balance sheet
Risk 7: Beta 2.50 = 2.5x Amplification in Market Drawdowns
- Data: Annualized volatility 91%, Beta 2.50
- Trigger: Broad market 10% correction — RKLB could decline 25%+
- Monitor: SPY / QQQ trends + VIX
- Source: Local fact pack
11. Four-Quarter Tracking Sheet
| Timeframe | Event | Key Metrics to Watch |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08 (Q2 2026 Earnings) | Q2 earnings | Revenue vs $225-240M guidance / EBITDA loss further narrowing |
| 2026 Q4 | Neutron Maiden Flight | Decisive binary event — success could drive +30-50%, failure could mean -30%+ |
| 2026-11 (Q3 2026 Earnings) | Q3 earnings | Space Systems SDA satellite delivery progress / backlog changes |
| 2027-02 (Q4 2026 Earnings) | Q4 earnings + full year | 2026 full-year $900M+ achievement / Neutron post-flight commercial progress / 2027 guidance |
| 2027 H1 | Neutron commercial operations | First commercial customer launches / recovery success / $50-55M pricing validation |
| 2027 H2 | EBITDA breakeven? | Market expects 2027-2028 Adj. EBITDA breakeven |
| Ongoing | SpaceX IPO developments | Valuation anchoring effect + passive fund inflows |
12. Source List
Local Data (Fact Pack)
| File | Source | Purpose |
|---|---|---|
income_quarterly_canonical.csv |
EDGAR + Polygon | 8-quarter revenue/GM/OI/NI trends |
cashflow_quarterly_canonical.csv |
EDGAR | OCF/FCF/financing activities (2025 Q1-Q4) |
balance_quarterly_canonical.csv |
EDGAR | Assets/liabilities/equity/Goodwill |
price_metrics.json |
Polygon daily_bars | Current price/Beta/volatility/returns |
quality_flags.csv |
Three-statement audit | Data credibility |
Official Online Sources
Rocket Lab Q1 2026 Earnings (2026-05-07) https://investors.rocketlabcorp.com/news-releases/news-release-details/rocket-lab-announces-first-quarter-2026-financial-results
Rocket Lab Q4/FY2025 Earnings (2026-02) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rocket-lab-announces-fourth-quarter-210500345.html
Rocket Lab Q3 2025 Earnings (2025-11-10) https://investors.rocketlabcorp.com/news-releases/news-release-details/rocket-lab-announces-third-quarter-2025-financial-results-posts
Rocket Lab SDA $816M Contract (2025-12-19) https://rocketlabcorp.com/updates/rocket-lab-awarded-816m-prime-contract-to-build-missile-defense-satellite-constellation-for-u-s-space-force/
SDA Tranche 3 $3.5B Awards (Spaceflight Now) https://spaceflightnow.com/2025/12/20/space-development-agency-awards-roughly-3-5-billion-to-4-companies-for-72-missile-tracking-and-warning-satellites/
Neutron 5-Launch Deal + Q4 2026 Target (Spaceflight Now 2026-05-07) https://spaceflightnow.com/2026/05/07/rocket-lab-announces-five-launch-neutron-deal-as-it-continues-aiming-for-late-2026-debut/